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Moving Average Convergence/Divergence
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence is the next trend-following dynamic indicator. It indicates the correlation between two price moving averages.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Technical Indicator is the difference between a 26-period and 12-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). In 经典技术指标之MACD基础知识 order to clearly show buy/sell opportunities, a so-called signal line (9-period indicators` moving average) is plotted on the MACD chart.
The MACD proves most effective in wide-swinging trading markets. There are three popular ways to use the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence: crossovers, overbought/oversold conditions, and divergences.
Crossovers
The basic MACD trading rule is to sell when the MACD falls below its signal line. Similarly, a buy signal occurs when the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence rises above its signal line. It is also popular to buy/sell when the MACD goes above/below zero.
Overbought/oversold conditions
The MACD is also useful as an overbought/oversold indicator. When the shorter moving average pulls away dramatically from the longer moving average (i.e., the MACD 经典技术指标之MACD基础知识 rises), it is likely that the security price is overextending and will soon return to more realistic levels.
Divergence
An indication that an end to the current trend may be near occurs when the MACD diverges from the security. A bullish divergence occurs when the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator is making new highs while prices fail to reach new highs. A bearish divergence occurs when the MACD is making 经典技术指标之MACD基础知识 new lows while prices fail to reach new lows. Both of these divergences are most significant when they occur at relatively overbought/oversold levels.
Calculation
The MACD is calculated by subtracting the value of a 26-period exponential moving average from a 12-period exponential moving average. A 9-period dotted simple moving average of the MACD (经典技术指标之MACD基础知识 经典技术指标之MACD基础知识 the signal line) is then plotted on top of the MACD.经典技术指标之MACD基础知识
MACD = EMA(CLOSE, 12)-EMA(CLOSE, 26)
SIGNAL = SMA(MACD, 9)
Where:
EMA the Exponential Moving Average;
SMA the Simple Moving Average;
SIGNAL the signal line of the indicator.
经典技术指标之MACD基础知识
“底背离”预示着下跌行情将结束。当股价指数逐波下行，而DIF及MACD不是同步下降，而是逐波上升，与股价走势形成底背离，预示着股价即将上涨。如果此时出现DIF两次由下向上穿过MACD，形成两次黄金交叉，则股价即将大幅度上涨。底背离一般出现在大盘的低位区,, 当股票走势一谷比一谷低 股价一直在下跌, 而成交量不再降低,同时MACD指标也出现了不创新低，还出现上升的情况。这叫底背离现象，底背离现象一般是预示大盘指数在低位可能反转向上的信号。底背离就是股价没怎么涨，但指标却反弹的很厉害了。股价不断创新低或新高，而指标却不断走高或走低。在环球金汇中实际应用的时候，MACD指标的背离一般出现在强势行情中比较可靠，股价在高价位时，通常只要出现一次背离的形态即可确认位股价即将反转，即顶背离；而股价在低位时，一般要反复出现几次背离后才能确认即底背离。因此，MACD指标的顶背离研判的准确性要高于底背离，这点投资者要加以留意。
底背离 底背离的结构
波浪分析中的底背离结构。波浪理论中的5浪推动结构中存在着背离结构，即5浪底和3浪底必然出现背离结构，这从5浪和3浪形成的市场机理可以得到解释。从MACD指标来说，在整个下跌5浪结构中，3浪底的dif值将超越1浪底的dif值将出现最低的极值，所以这一点可以作为判断5浪终结的一个依据。
底背离 注意问题
在实践中，MACD指标的背离一般出现在强势行情中比较可靠，股价在高价位时，通常只要出现一次背离的形态即可确认位股价即将反转，即顶背离；而股价在低位时，一般要反复出现几次背离后才能确认即底背离。因此，MACD指标的顶背离研判的准确性要高于底背离，这点投资者要加以留意。
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